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Memos & Research

MEMO: Weekly LCV Victory Fund Update – 11/1/2022

Nov 1, 2022

Contact: Emily Samsel, esamsel@lcv.org, 828-713-9647

To: Interested Parties
From: Pete Maysmith, SVP of Campaigns, LCV Victory Fund
Date: November 1, 2022
Re: Weekly LCV Victory Fund Update

Welcome to our final (!) weekly memo of the 2022 election cycle. As our organizing teams make their final GOTV push, the last mail pieces arrive in mailboxes, and our paid media programs run their course, these typically energizing last few days before the election have unfortunately also been marked by disgraceful political violence.

Between the horrific assault on Paul Pelosi, an attack on our own state affiliate in New Mexico where a chemical substance containing ingredients of a potent toxin used in terrorist attacks was sent to the office on a letter with threatening language and antisemitic symbols, and ongoing intimidation at voting locations, it is a difficult time to work in politics and media. We are grateful for journalists’ important reporting in these final days and as votes are counted.

Hatred and violence have no place in our democracy – and voters have the opportunity to elect leaders by November 8 who not only condemn these attacks, but who are committed to building a more just, equitable, clean energy future for all and want to make political participation easier, not harder.

Speaking of which, Democrats have been highlighting how big oil companies are continuing to reap record profits while managing to avoid accountability thanks to their allies in Congress as part of the closing message. Over the last week we saw candidates like Maggie Hassan, John Fetterman, Catherine Cortez Masto, and more making it clear that Big Oil, not consumers, should be the ones paying the price. Former President Obama has been talking about the Democrats’ accomplishments on climate change as a reason to vote. President Biden didn’t mince words when he said, “Oil companies’ record profits today are not because they’re doing something new or innovative. Their profits are a windfall of war — the windfall from the brutal conflict that’s ravaging Ukraine and hurting tens of millions of people around the globe.”

As a reminder, this cycle, LCV Victory Fund is part of the joint Climate Votes Project with Climate Power Action, Climate Reality Action Fund, EDF Action Votes (EDF AV), NRDC Action Votes (NRDC AV), and NextGen PAC to elect climate champions.

LCV Victory Fund and our affiliated entities are extraordinarily proud of our $100 million investment this cycle to elect pro-environment, pro-democracy champions. Let’s go win this thing.

Field Updates – LCVVF Field Program

Organizers knocked almost 400,000 doors in the last week, as the LCV Victory Fund field program with state affiliates and partners ramped up to meet our highest knock goals of the cycle, making a third pass of our list.

For the final week, our GOTV push continues with social pressure scripts and walking voters through their plans to cast their ballots. In the final sprint, also expanded our canvassing program by a total of 75,000 additional knocks across Nevada and Arizona. Through our door conversations we’re still finding voters who are making up their mind about their preferred candidate, with the economy, abortion access, the cost of healthcare, and the environment still as the top issues influencing voters.

Beyond canvassing our field universe, we’ve continued layered tactics including digital ads in AZ, NV, and WI, as well as ballot chase phone calls in AZ, MI, NV, PA, and WI, and mail in PA and WI this week.

Results to date:

  • 1,500,513 door knocks
  • 212,819 successful contacts with our targeted voters
  • 3,260 Vote by Mail sign ups
  • 10,222 commit to vote cards collected
  • 16,719 vote tripling sign ups

Anecdotes from the doors:

  • Arizona: In Tempe, we spoke with Heather about the upcoming midterm election. Heather told us she was voting for Sen. Kelly this November due to his persistent advocacy for education and climate action. She was positive that he would bring change to our education system and climate in order to create a better world for the next generation. Heather is planning to vote for Sen. Kelly on Election Day.
  • Michigan: In Grand Rapids, organizers spoke with Helen about the upcoming midterm election. The removal of lead pipes is really important to her and she supports Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Senator David LaGrand, and Rachel Hood. The interaction ended with her expressing her dislike of former President Trump and people with views like him. She wishes other people will become more involved in clean water.
  • Pennsylvania: In Philadelphia, we spoke with Amy about the upcoming midterm election. Amy is hoping Pennsylvania invests more in clean energy. Amy mentioned she liked John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro’s plans to bring clean energy jobs to Pennsylvania. Amy is planning to vote for both candidates on Election Day.
  • Wisconsin: In Madison, we spoke with 75-year-old Karen about the upcoming midterm election. She will be voting for both Governor Tony Evers and Mandela Barnes this November. She is concerned about potential cuts to Medicare and Social Security. She is confident that Gov. Evers and Barnes will work to keep Medicare and Social Security well-funded and protect other social welfare programs. She will be voting in person at her local polling center.

Paid Media Updates

Over the last week, the following new paid media campaigns launched:

  • OR-04 – Launched pro-Val Hoyle TV ad Monday.
  • RI-02 – Launched anti-Allen Fung OTT ad Friday, will start on TV on Wednesday.
  • Expanded GOTV campaign with Priorities USA Action to four new districts: IA-03, OR-04, OR-06, and RI-02. The ads include:
  • CO Sen – Launched anti-Joe O’Dea digital mobilization ad Monday and anti-O’Dea Spanish language TV ad Saturday.
  • PA Sen – Launched a $500,000 buy on an anti-Mehmet Oz ad on OTT Sunday.
  • New GOTV ads – we launched GOTV digital ads in KS-03, CA-49, CA-47, CT-05, VA-02, VA-07, WA-08, MN-02. An example is here.
  • Voters in Climate Voters Mobilization states and districts are receiving the final mail pieces in the ten-week campaign. Links to candidate specific mail pieces can be found here. This week the second mail piece dropped in our expansion universe and the final mail piece dropped in our original universe.

Ongoing paid media campaigns:

State Race Paid Media
AZ Senate Two digital ads: “Write It Down” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
CA House – CA-47 & CA-49 Two digital ads: “Write It Down” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
CA House – CA-27 Two digital ads: “Breathe” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
CA House – CA-49 TV ad: “Solar”
CO Senate Two digital ads: “Write It Down” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action

TV and Digital ad: “Pattern”

TV ad: “Can’t Trust”

Spanish language TV ad: “Cuts”

CO House – CO-08 TV ad: “Ayudemos”
Radio ad: “Ayudemos”
CT House – CT-05 Two digital ads: “Write It Down” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
GA Senate Two digital ads: “Write It Down” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
IA House – IA-03 Two digital ads: “Write It Down” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action

Digital ads: “Trump’s Plan” and “Somos Mas”
In partnership with Priorities USA

IL House – IL-14 Two digital ads: “Write It Down” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
IL House – IL-17 Digital ads: “Trump’s Plan” and “Somos Mas”
In partnership with Priorities USA
KS House – KS-03 Digital ad: “Write It Down”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action

TV/OTT ad: “Fits Right In”

ME Governor Digital ad in support of Governor Janet Mills**

Paid for by Maine Conservation Voters Action Fund

MI Governor Digital ads (Ad 1; Ad 2) in support of Governor Gretchen Whitmer and others**
Paid for by Conservation Voters of Michigan PAC
MI House – MI-07 & MI-08 Two digital ads: “Write It Down” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
MN House – MN-02 TV ad: “Love”
MN Governor Digital ads (Ad 1; Ad 2; Ad 3) in opposition to Scott Jensen**
Paid for by Climate Vote Minnesota
NC Senate Radio ads: “We Choose”
In partnership with BlackPAC
NC House – NC-13 Two digital ads: “Breathe” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
NE House – NE-02 Radio ad: “Trust”

Digital ads: “Trump’s Plan” and “Somos Mas”
In partnership with Priorities USA Action

NH Senate and House – NH-01 & NH-02 Two digital ads: “Write It Down” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action

 

TV ad in opposition to Don Bolduc
In partnership with EDF Action Votes

NJ House – NJ-03 Two digital ads: “Write It Down” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
NM Governor Digital ad in support of Governor Lujan Grisham**
Paid for by CVNM Verde Voters Fund
NM House – NM-02 Two digital ads: “Breathe” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
NV Governor Spanish Language TV ad in support of Governor Sisolak
Paid for by Nevada Conservation Leadership PAC
NV Senate and House – NV-01, NV-03, & NV-04 Two digital ads: “Write It Down” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
NY House – NY-22 Two digital ads: “Breathe” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
NY House – NY-19 Digital ads: “Trump’s Plan” and “Somos Mas”
In partnership with Priorities USA Action
OH House – OH-01 Digital ad: “Breathe” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
OH House – OH-09 Two digital ads: “Write It Down” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
OH House – OH-13 Two digital ads: “Breathe” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
OR House – OR-04 TV ad: Enough Talk

Digital ads: “Trump’s Plan” and “Somos Mas”
In partnership with Priorities USA Action

OR House – OR-06 Digital ad: “More Than Just Talk”
Digital ad: “Enough of Us”

Digital ads: “Trump’s Plan” and “Somos Mas”
In partnership with Priorities USA Action

PA Senate OTT ad: “Hurt People”
PA Governor Digital ad contrasting Doug Mastriano and Josh Shapiro’s records**
Paid for by Conservation Voters of PA Victory Fund
PA Senate and House – PA-07 & PA-08 Two digital ads: “Write It Down” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
RI House – RI-02 TV ad: “Loyal”

Digital ads: “Trump’s Plan” and “Somos Mas”
In partnership with Priorities USA Action

VA House – VA-02 & VA-07 Two digital ads: “Write It Down” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
WA House – WA-08 Two digital ads: “Write It Down” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action
WI Governor Digital ad contrasting Governor Tony Evers and Tim Michels**
Paid for by Wisconsin Conservation Voters Independent Expenditure Committee
WI Senate Two digital ads: “Write It Down” and “Show Up”*
Paid for by Climate Power Action

*Part of Climate Voters Mobilization campaign.
**Part of State Climate Voters Mobilization campaign.

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Paid for by LCV Victory Fund, www.lcvvictoryfund.org, and not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.